Clearly, Sheikh Hasina had not anticipated the shape of things that unfolded and reached its climax on Monday. Her resignation as Prime Minister and exit from Bangladesh on Monday were done in haste. Instinctively, she flew to India and got a temporary respite. Despite India’s best relations with her, the government rightly recognizes that giving her asylum is fraught with danger.
The Indirect Rule in Bangladesh, after Sheikh Hasina
As the military started ‘indirect’ rule of Bangladesh with the propping up of an interim government, it has not promised immediate elections. The present arrangement could last for an indefinite period. Awami League leaders are being rounded up and killed by mobs, formed principally of opposition BNP, pro-Pakistan Jamaa-e- Islami, and perhaps even of ISI moles there. Violence continues, the police are also targeted and they have struck work in protest. The situation remains extremely tense there.
Chances are that several cases could spring up in Bangladesh against Sheikh Hasina.
Sooner or later, Dhaka could ask New Delhi to hand her over to them. This would be a tricky situation, India being Bangladesh’s immediate neighbour. History is before us. The asylum that India granted to the Dalai Lama led to an instant worsening of our ties with Beijing, leading up to the 1962 War. Bangladesh is in no position to wage a war with India. But, the repercussions would be manifold. Both China and Pakistan, in unison, could back the new regime propped up by the military. The subcontinent as a whole could tense up, even as behemoth India remains peaceful and stable.
Chances are that Sheikh Hasina would be guided to a friendly European nation. Both the UK and the US have distanced themselves from such a possibility. The UK cites the reason that asylum laws do not allow anyone to seek it unless the seeker reaches the British shores directly from their country. The Joe Biden administration in the US cites ‘flawed’ processes in last January’s parliament polls in Bangladesh under Hasina’s rule and builds a wall against her. The Opposition had boycotted that poll and Hasina got a fresh term on a platter. Fate, however, willed otherwise.
Also Read: Quickly Know 5 Reasons Why Sheikh Hasina Resigned and Fled Bangladesh
Sheikh Hasina was, in recent years, a dictator of a kind
Situations turned her that way as the Pakistani ISI adopted crude ways to unsettle her through the arms of terrorist patronage. She put down dissent with a heavy hand. Those from her government who are remaining in Bangladesh could now be targeted and finished. Over 20 such murders of Awami League leaders were reported on Tuesday itself.
India will play safe and yet cannot turn its face on a trustworthy ally of the past. However, there is no clarity yet as to whether India foresaw the huge crisis building up in Bangladesh. Likely, there was a failure on the external intelligence apparatus.
Clearly, Pakistan through its ISI played a major role, hand-held the protesters through the Jamaa-at and via other shady channels, perhaps even directly through its shadowy sleeper cells in Bangladesh. What role China played is not clear, but both Pakistan and the red nation are hand in glove with each other in hurting India. This is not the time to discuss what India could or could not do in Bangladesh. Diplomatic matters are always shrouded in secrecy. This is time for us to hope for the best and be prepared for the worst.
Mohammad Yunus Has a Huge Reputation
Mohammad Yunus, who was handpicked by the military to lead the interim government, has a huge reputation as a social worker for the past many decades. He introduced the micro-finance scheme for the poor and earned the nickname as ‘Banker to the Poor.’ He did selfless service, though faced cases of money mismanagement.
Yunus and Hasina were not on good terms and he was perhaps closer to the BNP and Sheikh Khaleda. I had heard of him first around 1980, when he was training uneducated village girls to do birth-control operations in Bangladesh; which these girls did more successfully than qualified doctors, as a BBC correspondent returning from Bangladesh told me in the western metropolis then. Yunus won the Nobel Prize principally for his micro-finance scheme that helped the poor.
With such a background, Yunus can hopefully uphold the national interests of Bangladesh and not play into the hands of the Pakistani schemers and Chinese crooks. Good relations with India will always be in the best interests of Bangladesh.
Featured Image Courtesy: Muktar Hossain, CC BY-SA 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
